From a number of Reports, and especially from some letters,[[29]] it is evident that the scholars tried to foresee certain signs. Frequently, the date of the new moon or full moon is predicted, especially if the apodosis of the pertinent omen is a favorable one. Lunar eclipses are also an object of prediction. The non-occurrence of an eclipse is predicted in nos. 42, 67, 87, 321, 344, and 447. Predicted eclipses are mentioned in nos. 250, 251, 320, 388, 487, and 502. Since most omens derived from eclipses were unfavorable, a successful prediction would give the scholars and the king more time to prepare actions against an approaching danger. It would also enhance the prestige of the scholar who made the prediction. To us it would seem that a sign which can be predicted is not suitable any more to convey a message freely given by the gods. The attitude of the scholars reporting to the Assyrian king seems to have been different. Although they tried to foresee when something ominous would occur in the sky, they nevertheless considered it an omen and gave advice to the king about what should be done, sometimes even before the sign had actually been observed.[[30]]
It is not evident from the Reports how these predictions were arrived at. It seems that they were made only a few days in advance of the expected eclipse.[[31]]
A good illustration about the prediction of eclipses and its limitations is found in the Babylonian letter ABL 477 (sender's name lost): the king had demanded a definite statement whether a solar eclipse would occur or not. The author of the letter explains that solar eclipses are not in the same way predictable as lunar ones, and that he will not be able to find it out in the case under discussion.[[32]] He even goes on to suggest that the king who happens to be "in the field" and thereby in a better position to make observations should look for himself whether an eclipse will actually take place.
In no. 246, a rising of Venus is predicted for the same month to take place in the constellation of Leo. Since no precise date is given, this cannot really be called a prediction in the usual sense; anyone familiar with planetary phases would have been able to make it.
29 E.g., LAS 42 and 63, cf. Parpola 's discussion in LAS II.
30 No. 175, and cf. LAS 185 with commentary.
31 Cf. no. 42, which is dated two days before the potential eclipse date. For possible means of predicting, see Parpola. LAS II on nos. 42 and 63.
32 See also Parpola, LAS II on no. 41 r.1ff.
Hermann Hunger
Hermann Hunger, 'Predictions of Celestial Phenomena', Astrological Reports to Assyrian Kings, SAA 8. Original publication: Helsinki, Helsinki University Press, 1992; online contents: SAAo/SAA08 Project, a sub-project of MOCCI, 2020 [http://oracc.org/saao/saa08/reportsonomens/predictions/]